Comment
Housebuilding industry being held back by electric grid miscalculations, according to our new research
The development of new homes is being slowed down by current methods of estimating the size of grid connection new housing requires.
We have reviewed the evidence around the energy requirements of new homes and estimate the grid could support the delivery of 2.5 times as much housing as assumed.
The standard energy requirement for a new home has traditionally been between 1.5kVA to 2kVA of power. But the shift away from gas boilers and petrol cars mean almost all new homes will have an electric heat pump for heating and EV charger for electric vehicles, increasing the amount of electricity homes will need.
This has led to varying estimates of what the new peak energy requirement should be, from as little as 3kVA to 7.5kVA, but typically around 4.5kVA. These estimates are feeding into utility connections for new housing developments across the UK.
But our analysis suggests 4.5kVA is a significant overestimation, we estimate the average new home may need only 1.8kVA.
The increase in electricity requirements from EV charging and heat pumps is not increasing their peak demand as much as expected, due to new homes being more energy efficient and more customers moving to variable electricity tariffs, which rewards them for reducing peak demand on the grid.
An industry-wide review into the sizing process of grid connectivity for the housebuilding industry could free up substantial capacity in the grid, which is currently facing significant backlogs as housing and infrastructure projects wait to be connected to the network. This would reduce costs to build new homes and increase the speed of delivery.
The current grid capacity challenges are so severe in West London that a ban could be placed on housebuilding altogether until capacity frees up in the network.
The UK Government is under pressure to speed up the delivery of housing. The annual housing figures published in November found the Government was a long way off its 300,000 target, having built only 212,570 homes in England in 2022/23.
Barny Evans, Director, Sustainability and ESG said:
“Our electrical grid is fundamental for the housebuilding and renewable energy deployment we need, affecting our economic growth and the transition to net zero.
“We desperately need more housing to meet the Government’s 300,000 homes target, yet there is evidence we’re stopping ourselves from hitting that because of overestimated grid capacity calculation methods. There’s an immediate opportunity here to make better use of our grid and make sure we’re delivering homes quickly, in the places that need them most.
“We need to come together to review the current electricity sizing process using the latest evidence to ensure we are making the most of the system we have.”
19 February 2024