Comment

Falling short: the Duty to Cooperate in Greater Birmingham and the Black Country

How effective has the Duty to Cooperate been in filling the strategic and regional policy vacuum in the absence of regional plans, and is this likely to change? Using data prepared by our Economics team, Head of Planning Midlands, Tom Armfield explains why its effectiveness has been thoroughly tested by the Greater Birmingham and Black Country Housing Market Area (GBBCHMA), which many practitioners in the area can attest to, from the Birmingham Development Plan examination in 2016, to most recently the Solihull Local Plan examination in 2021.

The ‘Duty to Cooperate’ was first established by David Cameron’s flagship Localism Act of 2011, this has essentially performed the role of revoked strategic and regional plans, requiring authorities to work together to ensure all housing needs are met in full. The Levelling Up and Regeneration Act indicates it may not have much of a future. The updated National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), published in December 2023, however, confirms it is here to stay for now (paragraphs 24-27). 

A persistent shortfall

From the Birmingham Development Plan being adopted in January 2017, where a circa 38,000 home shortfall up to 2031 was established, a significant shortfall of housing has persisted across the Greater Birmingham and Black Country Housing Market Area (GBBCHMA), to be managed via the Duty to Cooperate. This is proactively monitored through the GBBCHMA ‘Position Statement’. An addendum to the third Position Statement published in December 2020 acknowledged a shortfall of 6,302 homes, largely reflecting our ‘Falling Short’ report, prepared on behalf of promoters and housebuilders, which critiqued the scale of the shortfall in detail.

Since then a further addendum to the third Position Statement was published in April 2023, now claiming a shortfall of 2,053 homes up to 2031 (as of 31 March 2021) a reduction in the shortfall of 4,249 homes. This is surprising given over 43% of the entire GBBCHMA comprises Green Belt, and in the three years that have passed between the two position statements plan-making has faltered, despite it being required to review plans every five years.

Position of plan-making in GBBCHMA local authorities

• The Black Country authorities abandoned preparation of their joint plan in October 2022, despite over six years of collaborative working on the plan. Each authority is now pursuing its own individual plan. 
• Bromsgrove District has not progressed its emerging plan beyond a supplementary consultation to their issues and options consultation in autumn 2019, despite committing to a full Green Belt Review and adopting a Local Plan Review by 2023 (as per policy BDP3 of the Bromsgrove District Plan adopted in January 2017), as the adopted plan is not capable of meeting Bromsgrove’s housing requirement up to 2030 in full.
• Lichfield District withdrew its Local Plan, which included a contribution to the GBBCHMA shortfall, from examination in October 2023. 
• Solihull Borough’s Local Plan remains at examination, despite being submitted in May 2021. 
• South Staffordshire intend to revisit their emerging Local Plan and undertake a further reg 19 submission plan consultation in spring 2024, over a year since they consulted on a previous reg 19 submission plan. 

Only North Warwickshire has a plan less than five years old, the four Black Country authorities do not have a plan prepared in the context of the NPPF, and half of the GBBCHMA authorities have a plan adopted over ten years ago. 

GBBCHMA shortfall – how persistent?

As a follow up to ‘Falling Short’, on behalf of a consortium of promoters and housebuilders we prepared ‘Falling Even Shorter’ in December 2023 to interrogate the overall housing need and supply position across the GBBCHMA up to 2031, to identify the true updated scale of the shortfall. A copy of the report has been submitted to the recent Dudley and Sandwell draft plan reg 18 consultations. 

The GBBCHMA authorities’ most recent addendum is predicated on a base date of 31 March 2021, we have had two years’ worth of monitoring data and supply evidence since then, which is not reflected in the addendum. 

The addendum also continues to reference a need for 205,099 homes over the period of 2011 to 2031, based on the Greater Birmingham HMA Strategic Growth Study (2018) that is increasingly dated having been produced almost eight years ago.

The standard method has since been introduced, offering the consistency that the Strategic Growth Study itself sought to provide. Whilst this cannot be backdated to 2011, it can be reasonably used in place of the Strategic Growth Study scenario as an indicator of future needs. 

Applying it from the base date of the addendum (31 March 2021) suggests that some 221,230homes are needed between 2011 and 2031, but this rises to 237,788 homes when the current outcome is used from 31 March 2023 onwards, allowing for worsening affordability and the removal of the cap for Birmingham. This approach, which best reflects national policy, indicates that some 309,492 homes are needed over the longer period from 2011 to 2036, with 366,857 homes needed to 2040. 

As national planning policy and guidance is clear that the standard method is to be used as the starting point for calculating housing need, reflecting a base date of 31 March 2023 and the 13 authorities’ claimed position, the shortfall position across the GBBCHMA stands at 34,742 homes up to 2031. Based on the supply position informed by the ‘Falling Even Shorter’ report’s analysis, the shortfall increases to 40,676 homes. This is the scale of unmet need that best represents the most up-to-date evidence. This shortfall increases to 62,373 homes up to 2036, and 79,737 homes up to 2040, when extrapolating the available supply data. 

With the end of this plan period up to 2031 just over seven years away, this unmet need represents real people who are in real need of a home, now. This picture will only become bleaker if authorities across the HMA plan to not review their Green Belt boundaries and not meet their own needs, as Dudley and Sandwell currently propose, each leaving a shortfall. In Sandwell’s case, their draft plan published at the end of 2023 leaves a shortfall of 18,606 homes against the borough’s own need, equating to a substantial 62% of the borough’s total needs. 

The Duty to Cooperate – effective or ineffective?

In the absence of any strategic level plan or agreement, it has been for the Duty to Cooperate to ensure the GBBCHMA’s housing needs are met in full, taking into account all of the sub region’s constraints. 

So far only North Warwickshire have an adopted Local Plan which actually grapples with the unmet need, despite a shortfall being formally confirmed since January 2017. With a significant remaining shortfall unaccounted for up to 2031, the Duty to Cooperate has not been effective in meeting housing needs across the GBBCHMA, and this shows no signs of changing. 

Until we have a change in policy the driver must be for ensuring that all emerging local plans seek to take their proportionate responsibility in meeting the GBBCHMA’s total housing need. Given there are only seven years remaining until 2031 this should be considered a priority, and certainly an exceptional circumstance for reviewing Green Belt boundaries. 

For more information, or to discuss the findings of the Falling Even Shorter report, please contact Tom Armfield. 

16 February 2024