Comment

What could the General Election have in store for the Oxford-Cambridge Arc?

As developers and investors prepare to gather at the EG Conference on the Oxford-Cambridge Arc next week (26 November), it’s worth considering what impact the impending General Election may have on this high profile growth area.

There is certainly a lot to consider on the political front. Across the sweep of the Arc a fifth of its MPs are standing down, including many longstanding parliamentarians. How will the electoral pact between the Liberal Democrats and Greens, as well as the Brexit Party’s decision to stand aside in a large number of Conservative-held seats, impact on local voting? We’ll see the first fully contested General Election in Buckingham since 2010 (following the departure of the previous MP and former Commons Speaker, John Bercow). And will former Conservative Dominic Grieve overturn his own majority of almost 25,000 to win the Beaconsfield constituency as an Independent?

Some tantalising electoral battles then, for political commentators at any rate. But what could it all mean for the Arc?

In many respects the General Election may tell us very little about the future of the Arc. Despite being a Conservative Government backed initiative, over recent months the party’s attention has started to focus more on the growth areas of the Northern Powerhouse and Midlands Engine, a move which is being reflected in Labour and Liberal Democrat policy thinking and, of course, reflects key election battlegrounds. Whilst there is no sign of the Conservatives withdrawing their support for delivering economic growth in this strategic corridor, whether their manifesto will include further details on delivering infrastructure in the Arc remains to be seen.

Another factor to bear in mind is the political conundrum that the Arc presents to Westminster politicians. Whilst the potential economic benefits are a vote winner (and there is substantial support for the East-West Rail project), other aspects of the Arc’s objectives are more contentious. We only have to look at the recent decision by Oxfordshire County Council to oppose the Oxford to Cambridge ‘Expressway’ road link, and the subsequent Conservative campaign announcement to ‘review’ its own scheme, to see this.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps has said the party will "look at alternative plans" for the Oxford to Milton Keynes and M1 sections of the Expressway: "If re-elected we will review as a priority this scheme to ensure that it is still worth going ahead”.

Moreover the new housing that will need to come forward to support economic growth in the Arc is likely to prove highly contentious in the public sphere.

In relation to the development industry, perhaps the most significant outcome of next month’s General Election will be what it tells us about how the local government elections in May 2020 will go. Of the 14 local elections next year there are some key contests, not least the first election to the new Buckinghamshire Council which will set the political direction of the new unitary council up to 2025. Conversely, we will also see the last elections for the seven current Northamptonshire districts and boroughs before the county divides into two unitary authorities in 2021. Bearing in mind the unexpected results we saw in other new unitary councils in May 2019 (most notably in the new Bournemouth Christchurch Poole Council), could we see a repeat of local issue groups causing the Conservatives election problems in the heartlands of the Arc?

Whilst the composition of the new Government could have an impact on the Oxford-Cambridge Arc in terms of funding, approaches to devolution and investment, as well as housing priorities and planning policy, the importance of the local political context should not be underestimated. As we are seeing in other growth areas in the North, Midlands and Thames Gateway, it is local leadership and partnership-working that is key to securing genuine progress.

So be sure to add 7 May 2020 into your diaries as well as 13 December 2019.

To discuss how our Planning, Economics or Strategic Communications teams may be able to support your projects in the Arc, please contact Phil Brogan, Tim Burden or Amy Gilham, or talk to us at the EG Conference at the Francis Crick Institute in London on 26 November.

21 November 2019