Comment

The paradox of active travel

We all agree we should increase how much we walk and cycle. And we see the benefits in improving productivity and health in cities, reducing air pollution and noise, and GHG emissions. Director, Barny Evans considers the economic effects of increased active travel and the steps we can take to simultaneously encourage innovation in cities whilst sustaining bus and train lines.

There has been a mountain of policies, ambition, statements and targets yet, despite this, we have been spectacularly unsuccessful. We have seen a switch to public transport and in some cities there has been substantial increases in cycling, but overall cycling and walking rates have barely changed in my lifetime.

There are many reasons behind this; growing wealth, improved public transport, more sedentary lifestyles, a preference for big infrastructure projects, and probably others. One, I think, that is not recognised sufficiently, is that there is a huge economic paradox.

If we do all get off the bus, stop driving into town, and start walking, scooting or cycling then there will be a huge reduction in revenue for operators of buses and trams and reduced parking revenue to councils. Even if overall it is good, because we become more efficient and healthy, it won’t be local authorities that benefit, at least not in the short term.

Public transport is dependent on mass; as passenger numbers reduce you get a spiral of decline with services having to be reduced because they aren’t cost-effective, which discourages their use and so on. Of course, there is a hope that actually public transport numbers go up as people get out of their car, but every switch to active travel reduces revenue.

Even worse, the switch to electric cars means lost revenue for the national Government and much cheaper car travel. The difference there is that road-use charging is economically logical and achievable. There won’t be the same opportunity with bikes, scooters and walking. I know from speaking to city transport authorities, running loss-making bus systems whilst subsidising bike hire schemes, they are aware of this issue.

It is ironic that the UK Government has just announced a lot of traditional funding mainly for trams, trains and buses; we might be seeing some change. Some of the investment in active travel is blending with the new micro-mobility technology, such as electric scooters, skateboards and e-bikes to spark the revolution that has long been promised. Everywhere I look in my city, I see couriers on e-bikes and people (illegally) whizzing past on e-scooters. When I look at an e-scooter that can take people around a town or city faster than any other mode of transport without effort, at almost no cost, it is really exciting. Most intra-urban travel could be quiet, space-efficient, reduce air pollution and GHG emissions, and be much cheaper. It could also decimate public transport.

We need two things to happen, in my opinion:

1. An evidence base and reward for success.

When working on a new development or a transport project it is standard to make predictions about its impact on journeys and modes of travel, but we don’t seem to measure the results. Did that bike hire scheme change modes of travel or just increase journeys? Did that active travel plan deliver its target or not? By requiring post-completion measurement, we could begin to understand what works and what doesn’t. That could then be partnered with rewarding success. Developers, investors, contractors and councils could have an element of payment linked to delivery against outcome rather than input.

2. We need public transport plans and a business model that aligns to the change we want and the reality.

It won’t be easy as most active/micro-mobility is free. However, by having transport systems that mesh, ticketing that enables multi-mode travel and revenue sharing with private investment in new modes of travel, we might be able to ensure that what is good for the whole of society is good for the transport authority.

There is a golden opportunity, particularly for cities, to grasp the transport revolution and make them more productive and better places to live. If we don’t align our economics to this future, we will pull in two directions, stifling innovation and slowly killing public transport.

Please get in touch with Barny Evans if you’d like to discuss the issues raised.

23 November 2021