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From housing stress to energy success: Can Northern Ireland’s Programme for Government deliver on its ambitions?

On Monday 3 March 2025, the Northern Ireland Executive published its long-awaited Programme for Government (PfG) 2024-2027. Titled ‘Our Plan: Doing What Matters Most’, it sets out an ambitious blueprint for the next three years in Government.

It promises to tackle everything from housing shortages to renewable energy goals, all while pledging to reform the planning system and enhance infrastructure. However, the question looms large: can this plan deliver on its promises, or is it destined to become another well-intentioned but underfunded policy wish list?

We’re most interested in what the PfG says - or doesn’t say - about planning, housing, water & wastewater infrastructure and renewable energy.  

Here’s what you need to know.

Infrastructure: Fixing the foundations

Infrastructure is the backbone of progress. It underpins the homes we live in, the energy we rely on, and the roads and transport networks that keep Northern Ireland moving. The PfG rightly acknowledges the importance of investment in this space - pledging improvements to water and wastewater systems, expanding public transport, and enhancing road networks. On paper, it all sounds promising.

Wastewater infrastructure - so crucial to the long-term viability of housing and environmental commitments - is given little more than a passing mention. A vague assurance to “continue to work to increase capacity” does not constitute a plan. Without meaningful investment over the next three to five years, this commitment seems like little more than empty rhetoric. Worse still, it risks further undermining public confidence in the Executive’s ability to make the difficult but necessary decisions.

The frustrating thing? Part of the solution is already sitting in plain sight, mentioned within the very same PfG. The Executive is seeking Treasury approval for a new borrowing arrangement to allow the Northern Ireland Housing Executive (NIHE) to invest in its homes, improve energy efficiency, and increase supply. If this approach makes sense for housing, why not apply the same logic to NI Water?

Allowing NI Water to issue bonds and raise capital for vital upgrades isn’t a radical proposal - it’s a practical one, reorganising under a co-operative mutualisation model would follow what is already in place in Wales. And yet, for reasons unstated, the Executive appears unwilling to even entertain the idea. But at some point, reality will catch up, and without decisive action, the system risks buckling under the strain.  

Housing: Ambitious targets or hollow promises

The housing crisis in Northern Ireland is both real and urgent, with over 47,000 households on the social housing waiting list - 35,000 of which are experiencing severe housing stress. The PfG acknowledges this challenge with a commitment to build 5,850 new social homes by 2027 and launch innovative funding models to accelerate affordable housing development​.

But, in the face of such demand, these targets seem more like a temporary sticking plaster.  

The Executive’s plan to support shared ownership and launch a £10 million ‘Loan to Acquire Move-on Accommodation’ fund for homelessness charities is a positive step but lacks the scale required to address the underlying issues​. Moreover, the reliance on Treasury agreements for funding leaves a lingering question: how financially stable are these promises?  

Ultimately, can the proposed housing strategy overcome the deep funding constraints faced across Executive departments, or will it simply fall victim to continued budget shortfalls and political gridlock?

Planning reforms: Streamlining or stalling progress

A functional and efficient planning system is crucial for delivering both housing and renewable energy projects. The PfG outlines a Planning Improvement Programme to speed up approvals and better align planning with environmental goals. There’s talk of collaborating with local governments and stakeholders - suggesting an intent to cut through red tape. The previous Infrastructure Minister, John O’Dowd had already announced in-year monitoring bids to appoint independent commissioners to help clear the backlog of Local Development Plans.

However, the devil is in the detail. Firm commitments are absent, and it is vague on how it will balance the conflicting interests of economic growth and environmental protection. With a history of planning bottlenecks and political stalemates, and without a clear execution strategy, there’s a real risk these improvements will stall before they even begin.  

Renewable energy: Powering up or falling short

The Programme’s renewable energy goals sound bold on paper - achieving 80% renewable electricity by 2030 and a supposed 40% ‘increase’ in renewable electricity capacity by 2027​. But let’s be clear, this isn’t a commitment to delivering 40% more renewable energy. It’s simply a promise to support the ability to deliver it.

Northern Ireland has just five years to deliver 80% renewable energy generation. Since 2013, we’ve only managed 48%. That means, to reach our target, NI needs to develop, approve, construct and connect 500 megawatts (MW) of renewable energy by 2030. Speaking frankly, this is not achievable with the current slow planning timelines, and, with no clear plan to improve this forthcoming from the Executive, our ambitions as a society are unlikely to be met.  

Unless the Executive can supercharge delivery of renewable energy infrastructure, it is highly unlikely that we will meet our legal mandated targets.  

The plan to publish a Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (RESS) and invest in green growth technology, including a £150 million Investment Zone, is a step in the right direction. However, achieving these targets will require overcoming significant challenges - particularly in grid capacity and planning.  

The reliance on public-private partnerships and the absence of detailed timelines for key initiatives like the Circular Economy Strategy and the Green Growth Strategy also leave room for scepticism​. Add to that the underfunding of grid expansion, and you have a renewable energy plan that – while optimistic – lacks the infrastructure to support its own ambitions.  

Policy implementation: The budget elephant in the room

Perhaps the biggest question mark over the PfG is funding. The document repeatedly references the need for Treasury agreements and additional funding streams, without providing concrete details. For a plan that promises transformative change, the reliance on a £235 million Transformation Fund feels worryingly insufficient against the backdrop of rising costs and fiscal pressures​.

The creation of a Delivery Unit to oversee implementation is a promising development, but its success will hinge on budgetary allocations and cross-departmental co-ordination - areas where the Executive has struggled in the past.

Pathways to progress or policy paralysis

The Programme for Government 2024-2027 is a bold attempt to tackle Northern Ireland’s most pressing issues - housing shortages, renewable energy, and infrastructure deficits. Its focus on sustainability, affordability, and cross-sector collaboration is commendable. However, the success of this vision depends on whether the Executive can bridge the gap between ambition and execution.

Without substantial and sustainable funding (and likely a continued set of tough discussions with the Treasury in London around the raising of the fiscal floor), streamlined planning processes, and a clearly defined approach to renewable energy delivery, there is a very real risk that these well-meaning policies will stall or collapse under the weight of financial and political realities.

The way forward is clear. Executive ministers must push for a long-term financial settlement with the Treasury and secure a firm commitment on fiscal flexibility.  

For Northern Ireland to move from housing stress to energy success, the Executive will need to back its ambitions with clear timelines, sufficient funding, and the political will and consensus to overcome entrenched challenges.  

Until then, the vision of a greener, more inclusive Northern Ireland remains just that - a vision.

The full 100-page Programme for Government can be found here.

For further information please contact Michael Jardine. 

5 March 2025