Comment

‘Go big or go home’ – levelling up or letting down? The 2020 Budget

Director in our Northern Planning team, David Diggle considers what’s in store for next week’s Budget and whether, as Bob Kerslake has commented, the Government will “go big or go home” to level up the UK economy.

It is fair to say that the forthcoming Budget is one of the most highly anticipated for a while. The Government, buoyed by a comfortable majority, is talking of a new bold approach to healing the social division of the country, more specifically healing the north-south divide. However, if rumours are true the Government is set to disappoint many of those hoping for action around redistribution with announcements on infrastructure to be postponed to a ‘later date’.

There is scarcely an interview with a Government minister without the phrase ‘levelling up’ being used, which makes you think that there is some sort of ministerial competition in play.  It is the phrase to explain anything and everything, equalling the status of ‘get Brexit done’ in our psyche. But there has already been movement. The Government has finally announced that HS2 will proceed and that they are committed to Northern Powerhouse Rail, or what is now termed “high-speed” north and wider regional connectivity. Northern Rail has been nationalised and other emerging initiatives – such as Freeports – are seen as a cornerstone of the Government’s plan to level up opportunity, with the criteria of allocating Freeports specifically geared towards areas of greatest need. 

Many are hoping for more, and much is expected of the 2020 Budget. Bob Kerslake, as head of the UK2070 commission has told the UK Government that it is time to “go big or go home” if it truly wants to level up the country. Meanwhile a recent study by the London School of Economics (LSE), led by Lord Stern, has urged the Government to use the Budget to unleash a “massive and long term” investment in net zero infrastructure to attain sustainable and inclusive growth across the country. There is also a need for clear policy frameworks to give confidence to private investors who are fundamental to delivering change.

The call for the Government to show the courage to heavily invest and actively address the north-south divide has never been louder.

It is well overdue. The Northern Powerhouse initiative has been active for six years but there has been more talk than action or investment. Indeed, since the initiative was launched in 2014, social, health and economic inequalities across the north have only widened. The recent moves on our train infrastructure by Government are welcomed but levelling up isn’t just about transport. 

The devil, as ever, will be in the detail next Wednesday, but there is no doubt this Budget will truly define what this Conservative Government is all about. It is therefore worrying that we are already hearing talk of a minimalist Budget and big infrastructure announcements postponed. As Guardian journalist Rafael Behr’s recent article observed, the Prime Minister has a unique talent for lifting spirits while lowering expectations. The North is waiting, though perhaps still more in hope than expectation…

6 March 2020