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Cities – What are they good for?

Starting a new role in a planning and development consultancy just as we have been through a world changing pandemic seems like a good time for Director, Barny Evans to share his views on the future of our urban places.

My summary thought is they face more threat than is realised and we need to respond appropriately.

Cities are arguably the defining characteristic of civilisation. Originally they enabled specialisation and trade that unlocked economic growth. People were drawn to them for the opportunities they offered and this became a positive feedback loop; bigger cities offered more opportunities, so more people came, so cities got bigger………. 

Cities also made life more efficient and the interaction of people accelerated wealth creation and technological development. That criticality of physical proximity has been declining for decades. Telephones, fax machines, the internet and video-calling have slowly enabled people to act as if they are in the same place even when miles apart. The COVID-19 pandemic has done more than just accelerate that. Suddenly, a good chunk of the population have proved they can work at home as effectively as they can in the office. We have seen the result of this as house prices in attractive villages and the countryside have outstripped those in cities.

Is this the end for cities as physical places and their centre of our economic life? Possibly. A lot of commentary on the challenge to cities of the homeworking revolution has been more sanguine than I expected. There seems to be a sense that things will change a little; a bit less commuting, more video-calling, but that fundamentally cities will continue in a similar way. I believe it may be more serious than that. Many, often well-paid, people have become used to a working day that doesn’t involve a crammed train, an early start and being unable to hear themselves think over the sound of a noisy colleague. Many of them will never come back full time and more and more may stop living in or near cities.

I appreciate that this may sound like we are only dealing with office workers, but it is those office workers that support the sandwich bars, pubs, nail bars, cobblers, restaurants, and so on. These declines become self-reinforcing. We have lived through an urban renaissance over the last forty years, but there is nothing ordained about that continuing. Looking back to the 1970s/80s London, Liverpool, Manchester, Cardiff, Glasgow and others were places of decline. Going further back, once the Western Roman Empire fell, Rome’s population declined from over a million people to around 50,000. It didn’t reach the same population again until the 20th century.

That might be a bit dramatic, but there is a risk of steady decline. To combat this, cities need to focus on social and leisure experience. Elements of our life that can become virtual will, but there is so much that a city can offer that cannot be virtualised. You cannot have a great night down the pub/club, have a cheap dinner followed by the cinema, go on a proper date, go to the swimming pool, see Ed Sheeran in concert, go to the theatre, bump into interesting people working in your area, go to a rugby match, have a hot stone therapy, and so on.

Technology is also working for cities in some ways. The electrification of heat and transport will reduce noise and air pollution making cities more pleasant places, and the mobility revolution of ride-hailing, scooters, bike hires, trams and so on working together means that intra-urban travel will work in a way that suburban/rural transport can’t. The online retail and office revolution will free-up space that will also allow more homes as part of a co-living experience that may offer a great lifestyle, especially for younger people.  And, of course, there will still be a need for people to come together for work in central locations.

The fundamental point is that cities need to become great places to live. We should focus on how they can be places that people want to be, not have to be for work. This means lidos, theatres, music venues, sports and experience retail. To do this will require the full range of planning policies, the private sector, taxation changes and public investment. It will require a careful plan to adapt our existing city centres that brings together landlords, tenants, residents and investors. There are hints of this happening, such as go-karting in former department stores, but we need to be bolder and quicker. 

If cities are going to avoid the great decline, they will need to heed the Roman maxim of keeping the city’s public happy; panem et circenses.

For more information please contact Barny Evans. 

 

8 November 2021